Independiente Del Valle 1-1 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 14 Jun 2025

📅14/06/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.42
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.03
Over 2.5
46%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
5%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
66%
-10.1pp
26%
Draw
20%
+6.0pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+4.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.2pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 17%
-6% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +2%
1.82/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.56
+0% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -4%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
378 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 208 · 70%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
20.0 Crosses 14.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Libertad
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
1.13 xG 0.68
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
431 Passes 180
85% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Box Touches 7
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.02.2025 Libertad Libertad 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
21.09.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
07.04.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-0 HT 2-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
17.09.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
15.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
1-1
AWAY Libertad
0.76 xG 1.20
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
447 Passes 279
89% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle and Libertad shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Independiente Del Valle carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 59% of the ball to Libertad's 41%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 0.76 to 1.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 0.60 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs Libertad?

Independiente Del Valle 1-1 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 14/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 56%, draw 26%, Libertad 18%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Independiente Del Valle), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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