Libertad 2-0 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.71
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
53%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
35%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
18%
+6.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.8pp
53%
Away Win
58%
-5.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.9pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 62%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +3%
1.36/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/0.90
+9% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +78%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
247 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 79%
14.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
18.4 Crosses 20.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.68 xG 1.17
32% Ball Possession 68%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
166 Passes 460
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
7 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.09.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
07.04.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-0 HT 2-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
17.09.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
15.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
2-0
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
0.70 xG 0.94
43% Ball Possession 57%
4 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
234 Passes 315
69% Pass Accuracy 79%
10 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad saw off Independiente Del Valle 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Independiente Del Valle at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Libertad had 43% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 57%, shots finished 4-12, expected goals 0.70 to 0.94.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Libertad and 1.50 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Independiente Del Valle?

Libertad 2-0 Independiente Del Valle in the Ecuador - Premier on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Libertad 24%, draw 23%, Independiente Del Valle 53%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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