El Nacional 0-1 Deportivo Cuenca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
31%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+3.0pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.8pp
31%
Away Win
36%
-4.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.0pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Cuenca EU Bookmakers 39%
+12% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -16%
1.45/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.14
+25% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +19%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
227 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
17.6 Crosses 15.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Cuenca
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.61 xG 1.01
49% Ball Possession 51%
19 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
199 Passes 202
67% Pass Accuracy 67%
17 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2024 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 1-2 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
24.03.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 2-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
26.11.2023 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 1-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
11.06.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 3-1 HT 1-1 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
31.10.2020 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 0-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
10.03.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 1-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Nacional
0-1
AWAY Deportivo Cuenca
1.18 xG 0.36
67% Ball Possession 33%
24 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
551 Passes 240
90% Pass Accuracy 77%
31 Box Touches 6
30 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH El Nacional vs Deportivo Cuenca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Cuenca squeezed past El Nacional 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 30% / 31% — and on the day Deportivo Cuenca made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, El Nacional had 67% of the ball to Deportivo Cuenca's 33%, shots finished 24-10, expected goals 1.18 to 0.36 — the balance of chances actually favoured El Nacional.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for El Nacional and 0.83 for Deportivo Cuenca.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs Deportivo Cuenca?

El Nacional 0-1 Deportivo Cuenca in the Ecuador - Premier on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Deportivo Cuenca?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 39%, draw 30%, Deportivo Cuenca 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (El Nacional) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (El Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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