Djurgarden 1-0 IFK Varnamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
30%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.15
Over 2.5
48%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
4.21
2-3 Goals
44%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
3.02
6+ Goals
10%
9.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.21 — our 25% vs market 18.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1.86
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.3
X/1
20%
3.78
X/2
8%
12.1
X/X
10%
6.1
2/1
7%
21.45
2/2
15%
9.18
2/X
5%
17.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
61%
-14.4pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.9pp
30%
Away Win
17%
+13.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.5pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Djurgarden EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Varnamo EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +28%
1.78/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.51
-4% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +34%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
408 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 76%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
25.3 Crosses 14.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Djurgarden
2W-1D-1L
AWAY IFK Varnamo
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.57 xG 0.78
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
446 Passes 381
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
33 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
16.09.2023 Djurgarden Djurgarden 1-2 HT 0-1 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
08.07.2023 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 1-2 HT 1-0 Djurgarden Djurgarden İSÇ
07.08.2022 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-0 HT 0-0 Djurgarden Djurgarden İSÇ
16.07.2022 Djurgarden Djurgarden 5-0 HT 2-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Djurgarden
1-0
AWAY IFK Varnamo
1.18 xG 0.67
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
346 Passes 484
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 18
10 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Djurgarden vs IFK Varnamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Djurgarden edged past IFK Varnamo 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Djurgarden as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Djurgarden had 43% of the ball to IFK Varnamo's 57%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.18 to 0.67.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Djurgarden had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Djurgarden and 0.75 for IFK Varnamo.

What was the final score of Djurgarden vs IFK Varnamo?

Djurgarden 1-0 IFK Varnamo in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Djurgarden vs IFK Varnamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Djurgarden win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Djurgarden 47%, draw 23%, IFK Varnamo 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Djurgarden), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Djurgarden) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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