Vasteras SK FK 2-1 Norrköping — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.95
6+ Goals
13%
8.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.14
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.65
X/1
21%
4.1
X/2
10%
9.48
X/X
10%
5.89
2/1
8%
20.95
2/2
7%
6.75
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
15.15
Value flag · 2/X at 15.15 — our 10% vs market 3.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-7.1pp
28%
Draw
23%
+5.0pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+2.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.8pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasteras SK FK EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Norrköping EU Bookmakers 25%
-33% / -33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -17%
2.29/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.63
-62% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
400 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
39.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
41.5 Crosses 18.6
0.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasteras SK FK
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Norrköping
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
04.07.2005 Vasteras SK FK Vasteras SK FK 0-2 HT 0-1 Norrköping Norrköping İSÇ2
28.06.2004 Vasteras SK FK Vasteras SK FK 0-2 HT 0-1 Norrköping Norrköping İSÇ2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasteras SK FK
2-1
AWAY Norrköping
1.07 xG 0.92
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 7
492 Passes 262
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
34 Box Touches 13
35 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vasteras SK FK vs Norrköping
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasteras SK FK edged past Norrköping 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vasteras SK FK as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Vasteras SK FK had 62% of the ball to Norrköping's 38%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.07 to 0.92.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Norrköping led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Vasteras SK FK and 2.00 for Norrköping.

What was the final score of Vasteras SK FK vs Norrköping?

Vasteras SK FK 2-1 Norrköping in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasteras SK FK vs Norrköping?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasteras SK FK win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Vasteras SK FK 49%, draw 28%, Norrköping 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vasteras SK FK), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vasteras SK FK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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