Leon 0-1 Atletico San Luis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 14 Jul 2025

📅14/07/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-2.9pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.2pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+5.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.3pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 25%
-2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -6%
1.62/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.56
-4% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +0%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
347 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 74%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
20.5 Crosses 16.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Atletico San Luis
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.31 xG 1.18
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
349 Passes 369
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.02.2025 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 1-2 HT 1-1 Leon Leon MEK
22.09.2024 Leon Leon 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
25.02.2024 Leon Leon 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
24.11.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 3-2 HT 2-1 Leon Leon MEK
24.08.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 3-0 HT 1-0 Leon Leon MEK
08.05.2023 Leon Leon 1-3 HT 1-3 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
0-1
AWAY Atletico San Luis
0.30 xG 1.41
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
300 Passes 349
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Leon vs Atletico San Luis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico San Luis squeezed past Leon 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Leon at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Leon had 46% of the ball to Atletico San Luis's 54%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 0.30 to 1.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Leon and 1.67 for Atletico San Luis.

What was the final score of Leon vs Atletico San Luis?

Leon 0-1 Atletico San Luis in the Mexico - Primera on 14/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Atletico San Luis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Leon 50%, draw 23%, Atletico San Luis 27%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Leon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
14 Jul 2025
02:00 Pachuca vs Monterrey Analysis →