Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls Prediction — Model Probabilities
Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls — Team-Based Signals
Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Philadelphia Union 3-2 New York Red Bulls — Actual Match Statistics
Philadelphia Union nicked a narrow win over New York Red Bulls 3-2. It stood 1-1 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart. A 5-goal game — the defences never settled.
True to our pre-match read, our model had Philadelphia Union as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals call finished the job: over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (58%) landed.
On the day, New York Red Bulls saw more of the ball, 52% to 48%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 2.05 to 0.63 — on chances created, Philadelphia Union won this by more than the scoreboard admits.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.67 a game for Philadelphia Union against 0.33 for New York Red Bulls.
Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls Result & Final Score
Philadelphia Union 3 - 2 New York Red Bulls in the USA - Open Cup on 14/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Philadelphia Union 56%, draw 23%, New York Red Bulls 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Philadelphia Union), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.