Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls — Team-Based Signals
Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-1
HT 1-1
New York Red Bulls
ABD
1-1
HT 0-1
New York Red Bulls
CONLK
0-1
HT 0-1
Philadelphia Union
ABD
Philadelphia Union 3-2 New York Red Bulls — Actual Match Statistics
Philadelphia Union nicked a narrow win over New York Red Bulls 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Philadelphia Union as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.
On the day, Philadelphia Union had 48% of the ball to New York Red Bulls's 52%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 2.05 to 0.63 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Philadelphia Union's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Philadelphia Union and 0.33 for New York Red Bulls.
What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls?
Philadelphia Union 3-2 New York Red Bulls in the USA - Open Cup on 14/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls?
Before kick-off our model rated a Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Philadelphia Union 50%, draw 24%, New York Red Bulls 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Philadelphia Union), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.