Xerez 0-1 Estepona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.45
Over 2.5
35%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.19
No
65%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
22%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.7pp
32%
Draw
30%
+1.2pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.5pp
65%
Under 2.5
65%
-0.6pp
35%
Over 2.5
35%
+0.6pp
35%
BTTS Yes
42%
-6.3pp
65%
BTTS No
58%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Xerez EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Estepona EU Bookmakers 31%
+47% / +47% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -13%
2.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/0.79
+67% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +52%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
324 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Xerez
0-1
AWAY Estepona
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 3
5 Shots on Target 1
13 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Xerez vs Estepona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estepona squeezed past Xerez 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 32% / 29%) promised a tight game; Estepona found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (65%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Xerez had 65% of the ball to Estepona's 35%, shots finished 17-3.

What was the final score of Xerez vs Estepona?

Xerez 0-1 Estepona in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Xerez vs Estepona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Xerez win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Xerez 39%, draw 32%, Estepona 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Xerez) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Xerez) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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