Köln 1-2 Magdeburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 14 Sep 2024

Köln
1-2 HT 0-0
Magdeburg
📅14/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Köln vs Magdeburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.45
Draw
20%
4.49
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.63
Over 2.5
63%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
6.23
2-3 Goals
36%
2.09
4-5 Goals
31%
2.55
6+ Goals
16%
5.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.72
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.1
X/1
16%
3.91
X/2
8%
13.3
X/X
8%
7.68
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
18.95
2/2
6%
8.88
2/X
5%
17.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.95 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
64%
-3.1pp
20%
Draw
19%
+1.0pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+2.2pp
37%
Under 2.5
34%
+2.8pp
63%
Over 2.5
66%
-2.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.8pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Köln v Magdeburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Köln EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Magdeburg EU Bookmakers 20%
-4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +4%
2.91/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/2.25
+62% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +3%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
436 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 73%
32.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
22.9 Crosses 10.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8

Köln vs Magdeburg Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Köln
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Magdeburg
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.61 xG 1.16
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
524 Passes 274
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
19.05.2019 Magdeburg Magdeburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Köln Köln AL2
17.12.2018 Köln Köln 3-0 HT 1-0 Magdeburg Magdeburg AL2

Köln 1-2 Magdeburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Köln
1-2
AWAY Magdeburg
4.21 xG 1.64
49% Ball Possession 51%
34 Total Shots 11
13 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 2
350 Passes 387
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
53 Box Touches 21
26 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Köln vs Magdeburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Magdeburg edged past Köln 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Köln at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%) came in.

On the day, Köln had 49% of the ball to Magdeburg's 51%, shots finished 34-11, expected goals 4.21 to 1.64 — the balance of chances actually favoured Köln.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Köln had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Köln and 0.50 for Magdeburg.

What was the final score of Köln vs Magdeburg?

Köln 1-2 Magdeburg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Köln vs Magdeburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Köln win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Köln 61%, draw 20%, Magdeburg 19%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Köln) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Köln) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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