Ulm 1846 1-2 Nürnberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 14 Sep 2024

Ulm 1846
1-2 HT 0-0
Nürnberg
📅14/09/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Ulm 1846 vs Nürnberg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.82
Over 2.5
56%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.75
No
44%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.22
2-3 Goals
33%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.65
6+ Goals
15%
15.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.65 — our 28% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.01
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.4
X/1
15%
4.7
X/2
11%
6.52
X/X
8%
4.61
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
13%
4.74
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-1.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
51%
-7.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
49%
+7.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.5pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ulm 1846 v Nürnberg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ulm 1846 EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -2%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
311 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
– Crosses 16.1
– Yellow Cards 2.4

Ulm 1846 vs Nürnberg Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ulm 1846
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Nürnberg
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.52 xG 1.47
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 18
0 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
400 Passes 377
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 20
8 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
07.08.2021 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 0-1 HT 0-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AFK

Ulm 1846 1-2 Nürnberg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ulm 1846
1-2
AWAY Nürnberg
1.35 xG 2.52
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 6
290 Passes 403
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 18
5 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Ulm 1846 vs Nürnberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nürnberg squeezed past Ulm 1846 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Ulm 1846 at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ulm 1846 had 42% of the ball to Nürnberg's 58%, shots finished 13-16, expected goals 1.35 to 2.52.

What was the final score of Ulm 1846 vs Nürnberg?

Ulm 1846 1-2 Nürnberg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ulm 1846 vs Nürnberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ulm 1846 win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ulm 1846 43%, draw 25%, Nürnberg 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ulm 1846) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ulm 1846) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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