HNK Gorica 0-1 Rijeka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.09
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
49%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.11
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.76
6+ Goals
11%
16.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 29% vs market 26.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
13%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
21%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
17%
+5.4pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.0pp
49%
Away Win
60%
-10.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.1pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Rijeka EU Bookmakers 64%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -5%
0.88/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/0.81
+1% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -8%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
216 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 73%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
13.4 Crosses 17.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Rijeka
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.99 xG 2.19
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
210 Passes 296
64% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
21.04.2024 Rijeka Rijeka 3-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
11.02.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-2 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
24.01.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-3 HT 2-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
29.10.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 1-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
23.04.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-0 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
12.02.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 2-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
0-1
AWAY Rijeka
0.72 xG 0.76
57% Ball Possession 43%
6 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
424 Passes 287
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
9 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Rijeka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rijeka edged past HNK Gorica 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Rijeka as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 57% of the ball to Rijeka's 43%, shots finished 6-11, expected goals 0.72 to 0.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rijeka led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for HNK Gorica and 1.83 for Rijeka.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Rijeka?

HNK Gorica 0-1 Rijeka in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Rijeka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 22%, draw 29%, Rijeka 49%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rijeka), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rijeka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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