Lech Poznan 5-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.6
No
53%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.53
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.9
6+ Goals
12%
8.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.53 — our 27% vs market 17.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.2
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.8
X/1
20%
4.26
X/2
10%
9.26
X/X
11%
5.73
2/1
7%
21.15
2/2
13%
6.44
2/X
6%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-4.2pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.8pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.9pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 26%
-7% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +0%
1.58/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.64
-12% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
22.3 Crosses 16.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.61 xG 0.94
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
400 Passes 307
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.02.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-2 HT 0-2 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
24.10.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-3 HT 2-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
27.05.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
12.11.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-2 HT 1-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
19.03.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
24.09.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
5-0
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
3.14 xG 0.06
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 2
6 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 1
445 Passes 275
90% Pass Accuracy 80%
34 Box Touches 3
25 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan ran out comfortable winners over Jagiellonia Bialystok 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lech Poznan as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 60% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 40%, shots finished 18-2, expected goals 3.14 to 0.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.00 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Lech Poznan 5-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 49%, draw 23%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 28%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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