AVS 1-0 Rio Ave — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 14 Sep 2024

AVS
1-0 HT 0-0
Rio Ave
📅14/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.53
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
31%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.6
Over 2.5
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.49
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
4.78
6+ Goals
9%
27.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.97
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.45
X/1
9%
5.38
X/2
12%
5.45
X/X
13%
3.76
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
13%
4.04
2/X
7%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
36%
+4.5pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.1pp
31%
Away Win
34%
-2.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.3pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AVS EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 37%
+50% / +50% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.84/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.56
+61% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -1%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
272 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 80%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
9.0 Crosses 15.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AVS
1-0
AWAY Rio Ave
0.59 xG 1.04
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 11
258 Passes 465
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AVS vs Rio Ave
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AVS nicked a narrow win over Rio Ave 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 31%) promised a tight game; AVS found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, AVS had 38% of the ball to Rio Ave's 62%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 0.59 to 1.04 — on chances, Rio Ave could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of AVS vs Rio Ave?

AVS 1-0 Rio Ave in the Portugal - Premier League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AVS vs Rio Ave?

Before kick-off our model rated a AVS win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split AVS 40%, draw 28%, Rio Ave 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AVS), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AVS) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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