Casa Pia 3-1 Moreirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.56
Over 2.5
42%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.37
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
5.09
6+ Goals
8%
31.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.37
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.95
X/1
13%
5.63
X/2
13%
5.07
X/X
11%
3.68
2/1
11%
34.5
2/2
16%
3.76
2/X
8%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.4pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.8pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+0.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
60%
-1.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
40%
+1.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-1.8pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreirense EU Bookmakers 40%
-16% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +28%
1.19/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/0.87
-57% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +150%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
307 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
19.2 Crosses 18.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casa Pia
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Moreirense
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.97 xG 1.19
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
344 Passes 350
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2024 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-1 Moreirense Moreirense POR
08.01.2024 Moreirense Moreirense 1-4 HT 1-3 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casa Pia
3-1
AWAY Moreirense
1.63 xG 0.63
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
287 Passes 373
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 12
14 Crosses 13
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Casa Pia vs Moreirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casa Pia beat Moreirense 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 36% — and on the day Casa Pia made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Casa Pia had 45% of the ball to Moreirense's 55%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.63 to 0.63.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Casa Pia and 1.00 for Moreirense.

What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Moreirense?

Casa Pia 3-1 Moreirense in the Portugal - Premier League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Casa Pia win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 36%, draw 28%, Moreirense 36%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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