Famalicao 1-1 Gil Vicente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.9
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.68
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.36
6+ Goals
11%
22.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 35% vs market 31.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.62
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.15
X/1
17%
4.15
X/2
8%
7.9
X/X
18%
4.14
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
12%
6.45
2/X
6%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.2pp
32%
Draw
28%
+3.9pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.4pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Famalicao EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 27%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -10%
1.35/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.40
-3% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
339 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
21.4 Crosses 16.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Famalicao
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gil Vicente
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.21 xG 1.70
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
291 Passes 360
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.03.2024 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-2 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
04.11.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 3-1 HT 2-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
12.02.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 0-1 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
22.08.2022 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 0-0 HT 0-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
15.04.2022 Famalicao Famalicao 2-2 HT 2-1 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
05.12.2021 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 4-0 HT 3-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Famalicao
1-1
AWAY Gil Vicente
1.06 xG 0.69
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
385 Passes 289
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Famalicao vs Gil Vicente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Famalicao and Gil Vicente couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Famalicao at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Famalicao had 57% of the ball to Gil Vicente's 43%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.06 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Famalicao and 1.50 for Gil Vicente.

What was the final score of Famalicao vs Gil Vicente?

Famalicao 1-1 Gil Vicente in the Portugal - Premier League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Famalicao vs Gil Vicente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Famalicao 41%, draw 32%, Gil Vicente 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Famalicao), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Famalicao) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
14 Sep 2024
17:30 Casa Pia vs Moreirense Analysis →
20:00 AVS vs Rio Ave Analysis →
22:30 Benfica vs Santa Clara Analysis →