Progreso 0-1 Cerro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
33%
3.28
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
19%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-4.6pp
33%
Draw
27%
+6.0pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-1.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.3pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro EU Bookmakers 32%
-12% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
0.92/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.26
-29% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
347 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Cerro
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
01.03.2024 Cerro Cerro 2-3 HT 2-1 Progreso Progreso URU
10.09.2022 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU2
07.02.2021 Cerro Cerro 2-0 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
16.08.2020 Progreso Progreso 2-0 HT 2-0 Cerro Cerro URU
03.11.2019 Progreso Progreso 1-1 HT 1-1 Cerro Cerro URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
0-1
AWAY Cerro
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Cerro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro edged past Progreso 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 33% / 27% — and on the day Cerro made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, Progreso had 53% of the ball to Cerro's 47%, shots finished 11-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Progreso had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Progreso and 1.20 for Cerro.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Cerro?

Progreso 0-1 Cerro in the Uruguay - Premier League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Cerro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Progreso win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Progreso 39%, draw 33%, Cerro 27%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Progreso) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Progreso) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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