Atletico Mineiro 1-1 Santos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
23%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.68
Over 2.5
47%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.65
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
4.05
6+ Goals
10%
19.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.59
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
12%
4.34
X/2
7%
7.85
X/X
12%
4.21
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
9%
6.45
2/X
8%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
49%
+1.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.9pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.9pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -9%
1.53/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.36
+11% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
328 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 81%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
21.3 Crosses 17.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Santos
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.55 xG 1.22
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
449 Passes 261
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 4
17.04.2025 Santos Santos 2-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
27.08.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BR1
23.04.2023 Santos Santos 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
06.10.2022 Santos Santos 1-2 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
12.06.2022 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-1 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BR1
14.10.2021 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 3-1 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
1-1
AWAY Santos
1.16 xG 1.32
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
400 Passes 357
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
27 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Santos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro and Santos couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Mineiro at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 53% of the ball to Santos's 47%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.16 to 1.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 0.83 for Santos.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Santos?

Atletico Mineiro 1-1 Santos in the Brazil - Serie A on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Santos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 50%, draw 26%, Santos 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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