Palmeiras 4-1 Internacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.49
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.78
Over 2.5
53%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.13
No
48%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.9
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
23%
3.7
6+ Goals
10%
16.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.7 — our 23% vs market 20.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.81
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.2
X/1
27%
3.73
X/2
8%
12.9
X/X
7%
5.16
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
25.5
2/2
6%
11.75
2/X
5%
20.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
63%
-2.2pp
20%
Draw
22%
-2.3pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
43%
+9.6pp
48%
BTTS No
57%
-9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Internacional EU Bookmakers 17%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.85/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.46
-1% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
366 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 79%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
25.5 Crosses 13.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Internacional
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.35 xG 1.05
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
326 Passes 336
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.04.2025 Internacional Internacional 0-1 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
04.08.2024 Internacional Internacional 1-1 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
18.04.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-1 HT 0-1 Internacional Internacional BR1
12.11.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-0 HT 1-0 Internacional Internacional BR1
17.07.2023 Internacional Internacional 0-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
13.11.2022 Internacional Internacional 3-0 HT 2-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
4-1
AWAY Internacional
2.40 xG 0.26
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
524 Passes 308
90% Pass Accuracy 83%
31 Box Touches 6
20 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Internacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras swept aside Internacional 4-1. Half-time: 4-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Palmeiras had 61% of the ball to Internacional's 39%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 2.40 to 0.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Palmeiras and 0.83 for Internacional.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Internacional?

Palmeiras 4-1 Internacional in the Brazil - Serie A on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Internacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 61%, draw 20%, Internacional 19%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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