Alianza Lima 3-4 Deportivo Garcilaso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
77%
1.29
Draw
15%
4.95
Away
8%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.1
Over
57%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.19
No
56%
1.59
Total Goals
0-1
21%
2-3
45%
4-5
26%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
51%
1/2
1%
1/X
3%
X/1
23%
X/2
3%
X/X
9%
2/1
3%
2/2
4%
2/X
3%
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.
SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Alianza Lima The Market 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso The Market 12%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Great
2.56 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 0.89
0.41 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.92
Average Attack Strength Great
Great Defense Strength Great
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 72%
27 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Lima
5W-0D-0L
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.25 xG 1.12
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
290 Passes 204
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.04.2025 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
27.10.2024 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 1-2 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
20.05.2024 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 3-2 HT 1-2 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
29.10.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
11.06.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 3-2 HT 2-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Lima
3 - 4
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
2.84 xG 1.96
76% Ball Possession 24%
20 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 1
423 Passes 90
86% Pass Accuracy 58%
32 Box Touches 12
35 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Deportivo Garcilaso came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Alianza Lima 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 2-4. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

File this under upsets: a 77% lean on Alianza Lima went begging. That's football — and exactly why we publish probabilities, not promises. The goals card split: over 2.5 goals (57%) came in, no to both teams scoring (56%) didn't.

The match data tells the story: Alianza Lima had 76% of the ball to Deportivo Garcilaso's 24%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 2.84 to 1.96 — on chances, Alianza Lima could feel hard done by.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Alianza Lima had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Alianza Lima and 1.00 for Deportivo Garcilaso.

Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso Result & Final Score

Alianza Lima 3 - 4 Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peru - Premier League on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 77%, with the full match-result split Alianza Lima 77%, draw 14%, Deportivo Garcilaso 8%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Alianza Lima), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alianza Lima) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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