Bohemians 1-3 St Patricks — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 14 Oct 2024

📅14/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
40%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.91
Over 2.5
56%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.66
No
43%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.46
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
28%
3.44
6+ Goals
11%
13.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.44 — our 28% vs market 23.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.0
1/2
8%
27.0
1/X
5%
13.1
X/1
9%
5.9
X/2
12%
5.25
X/X
10%
4.71
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
21%
3.4
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
12.95
Value flag · 2/X at 12.95 — our 11% vs market 4.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
35%
-1.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
40%
Away Win
39%
+1.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
48%
-4.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
52%
+4.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.8pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bohemians EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY St Patricks EU Bookmakers 43%
-8% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
0.89/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.01
+2% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -22%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
276 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 70%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
22.7 Crosses 19.6
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bohemians
1W-3D-2L
AWAY St Patricks
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.05 xG 0.89
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
299 Passes 213
74% Pass Accuracy 65%
21 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.06.2024 St Patricks St Patricks 0-0 HT 0-0 Bohemians Bohemians İRL
24.05.2024 Bohemians Bohemians 2-2 HT 1-2 St Patricks St Patricks İRL
23.02.2024 St Patricks St Patricks 0-1 HT 0-0 Bohemians Bohemians İRL
12.11.2023 St Patricks St Patricks 3-1 HT 1-1 Bohemians Bohemians İRK
20.10.2023 Bohemians Bohemians 0-2 HT 0-0 St Patricks St Patricks İRL
11.08.2023 St Patricks St Patricks 0-0 HT 0-0 Bohemians Bohemians İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bohemians
1-3
AWAY St Patricks
1.37 xG 1.56
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
242 Passes 390
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bohemians vs St Patricks
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St Patricks saw off Bohemians 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 26% / 40%) promised a tight game; St Patricks found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Bohemians had 41% of the ball to St Patricks's 59%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 1.37 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St Patricks led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Bohemians and 1.17 for St Patricks.

What was the final score of Bohemians vs St Patricks?

Bohemians 1-3 St Patricks in the Ireland - Premier League on 14/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bohemians vs St Patricks?

Before kick-off our model rated an St Patricks win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Bohemians 34%, draw 26%, St Patricks 40%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St Patricks), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (St Patricks) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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