Once Caldas 1-5 Independiente Medellin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 14 Oct 2025

📅14/10/2025 · 🕒01:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.53
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
42%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
36%
-2.3pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.4pp
42%
Away Win
36%
+5.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.3pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 40%
-5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +10%
1.18/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.19
-10% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
290 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 79%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
19.2 Crosses 13.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Independiente Medellin
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.03 xG 1.28
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
349 Passes 346
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2025 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-0 HT 2-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
29.09.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
17.03.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-2 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
02.10.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-2 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
12.05.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-2 HT 2-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
25.07.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 1-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
1-5
AWAY Independiente Medellin
1.52 xG 2.46
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 24
5 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 3
292 Passes 245
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin cruised past Once Caldas 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Independiente Medellin as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Once Caldas had 54% of the ball to Independiente Medellin's 46%, shots finished 18-24, expected goals 1.52 to 2.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Once Caldas and 1.67 for Independiente Medellin.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin?

Once Caldas 1-5 Independiente Medellin in the Colombia - Primera on 14/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 34%, draw 25%, Independiente Medellin 42%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Medellin) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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