Once Caldas 0-2 Independiente Medellin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒00:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.51
Over 2.5
36%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.13
No
61%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.7pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.9pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.8pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.9pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.9pp
39%
BTTS Yes
43%
-4.1pp
61%
BTTS No
57%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 28%
+0% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -15%
1.16/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.21
+5% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -16%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
277 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 77%
16.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
18.8 Crosses 12.5
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Independiente Medellin
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.02 xG 1.41
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
292 Passes 330
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.03.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-2 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
02.10.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-2 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
12.05.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-2 HT 2-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
25.07.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 1-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
05.02.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
18.09.2021 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 3-1 HT 0-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
0-2
AWAY Independiente Medellin
1.79 xG 0.69
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
427 Passes 271
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
29 Box Touches 14
40 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin saw off Once Caldas 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Once Caldas at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Once Caldas had 60% of the ball to Independiente Medellin's 40%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 1.79 to 0.69 — the balance of chances actually favoured Once Caldas.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Once Caldas had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Once Caldas and 1.67 for Independiente Medellin.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin?

Once Caldas 0-2 Independiente Medellin in the Colombia - Primera on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 44%, draw 30%, Independiente Medellin 26%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Once Caldas) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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