Independiente Medellin 2-0 Once Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒04:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.74
Over 2.5
38%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.09
No
64%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
60%
-6.2pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.5pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+3.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
54%
+8.6pp
38%
Over 2.5
46%
-8.6pp
36%
BTTS Yes
44%
-7.5pp
64%
BTTS No
56%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 20%
+4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +5%
1.44/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.24
-13% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
343 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.9
18.3 Crosses 12.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Once Caldas
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.29 xG 1.23
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
320 Passes 327
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
17.03.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-2 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
02.10.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-2 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
12.05.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-2 HT 2-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
25.07.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 1-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
05.02.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
2-0
AWAY Once Caldas
0.79 xG 0.38
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 5
428 Passes 280
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin got the better of Once Caldas 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Independiente Medellin as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (64%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 59% of the ball to Once Caldas's 41%, shots finished 11-6, expected goals 0.79 to 0.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Once Caldas led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.50 for Once Caldas.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?

Independiente Medellin 2-0 Once Caldas in the Colombia - Primera on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 54%, draw 26%, Once Caldas 20%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Medellin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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