Envigado 3-1 Deportes Tolima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
4.48
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
40%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.52
Over 2.5
37%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.29
No
60%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
19%
+10.1pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.3pp
40%
Away Win
53%
-12.4pp
63%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.1pp
37%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
40%
+0.6pp
60%
BTTS No
60%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Envigado EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 56%
+1% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
0.82/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/0.88
-5% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +53%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
240 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 82%
12.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
13.7 Crosses 10.8
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Envigado
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Deportes Tolima
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.04 xG 1.17
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
305 Passes 373
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.11.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 3-0 HT 2-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
17.04.2024 Envigado Envigado 0-2 HT 0-2 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
22.09.2023 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-0 HT 1-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
13.04.2023 Envigado Envigado 2-1 HT 1-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
30.10.2022 Envigado Envigado 1-1 HT 1-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
17.06.2022 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-0 HT 1-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Envigado
3-1
AWAY Deportes Tolima
0.47 xG 0.81
34% Ball Possession 66%
6 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
124 Passes 295
62% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 19
9 Crosses 27
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Envigado vs Deportes Tolima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Envigado beat Deportes Tolima 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (29% / 30% / 40%) promised a tight game; Envigado found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Envigado had 34% of the ball to Deportes Tolima's 66%, shots finished 6-13, expected goals 0.47 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Envigado and 1.67 for Deportes Tolima.

What was the final score of Envigado vs Deportes Tolima?

Envigado 3-1 Deportes Tolima in the Colombia - Primera on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Envigado vs Deportes Tolima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Envigado 29%, draw 30%, Deportes Tolima 40%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Deportes Tolima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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