NK Varazdin 1-1 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - HR Nogometni Cup, 14 Nov 2024

📅14/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.67
Over 2.5
53%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.71
2-3 Goals
30%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
4.43
6+ Goals
12%
23.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.43 — our 27% vs market 17.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
8%
1/X
3%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
52%
-1.0pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.2pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
56%
-8.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
44%
+8.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.8pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 25%
+38% / +38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+90% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
346 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
3W-2D-1L
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.42 xG 0.97
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
351 Passes 318
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
03.08.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
30.03.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-4 HT 1-2 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
15.12.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-3 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
30.09.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
23.07.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-1 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
1-1
AWAY HNK Gorica
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin and HNK Gorica couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was NK Varazdin at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 49% of the ball to HNK Gorica's 51%, shots finished 10-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NK Varazdin had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for NK Varazdin and 1.17 for HNK Gorica.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica?

NK Varazdin 1-1 HNK Gorica in the Croatia - HR Nogometni Cup on 14/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated a NK Varazdin win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 51%, draw 24%, HNK Gorica 25%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (NK Varazdin) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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