NK Varazdin 2-1 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.87
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.06
6+ Goals
8%
19.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 32% vs market 29.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-7.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+5.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.4pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 21%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -8%
1.38/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.46
-1% / +118% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
377 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 69%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
14.4 Crosses 15.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
2W-2D-2L
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.43 xG 1.21
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
369 Passes 284
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.08.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
30.03.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-4 HT 1-2 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
15.12.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-3 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
30.09.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
23.07.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-1 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
20.05.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 5-2 HT 2-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
2-1
AWAY HNK Gorica
0.83 xG 0.84
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
367 Passes 390
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 6
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin squeezed past HNK Gorica 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had NK Varazdin as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 48% of the ball to HNK Gorica's 52%, shots finished 18-5, expected goals 0.83 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for NK Varazdin and 1.83 for HNK Gorica.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica?

NK Varazdin 2-1 HNK Gorica in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated a NK Varazdin win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 50%, draw 26%, HNK Gorica 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NK Varazdin) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (NK Varazdin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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