Birmingham 2-0 Bristol Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.25
Draw
23%
5.28
Away
19%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.16
No
51%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
22%
4.35
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
2.74
6+ Goals
12%
7.68
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.35 — our 22% vs market 16.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.42
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
4%
27.5
X/1
17%
3.36
X/2
6%
24.7
X/X
10%
8.47
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2
7%
20.3
2/X
9%
28.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Birmingham win — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
76%
-18.0pp
23%
Draw
16%
+7.5pp
19%
Away Win
8%
+10.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
40%
+5.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-5.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.1pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 11%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.96/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.59
-19% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -4%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
410 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 68%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
25.9 Crosses 13.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Bristol Rovers
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
20 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
11.08.2015 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 1-2 HT 0-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNLK
14.01.2014 Birmingham Birmingham 3-0 HT 1-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham
2-0
AWAY Bristol Rovers
3.12 xG 0.10
66% Ball Possession 34%
26 Total Shots 3
8 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 0
568 Passes 249
88% Pass Accuracy 74%
50 Box Touches 4
31 Crosses 8
POST-MATCH Birmingham vs Bristol Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham got the better of Bristol Rovers 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Birmingham as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Birmingham had 66% of the ball to Bristol Rovers's 34%, shots finished 26-3, expected goals 3.12 to 0.10.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Birmingham had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Birmingham and 0.50 for Bristol Rovers.

What was the final score of Birmingham vs Bristol Rovers?

Birmingham 2-0 Bristol Rovers in the England - 1st Division on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham vs Bristol Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Birmingham 58%, draw 23%, Bristol Rovers 19%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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