Carlisle United 0-2 Chesterfield — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
37%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.04
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
3.47
6+ Goals
10%
14.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.48
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X EV+ ✗
13%
13.4
X/1
17%
6.31
X/2
14%
5.01
X/X
8%
4.55
2/1
6%
33.0
2/2
17%
3.25
2/X
5%
13.2
Value flag · 1/X at 13.4 — our 13% vs market 4.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+4.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
37%
Away Win
41%
-3.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.8pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Chesterfield EU Bookmakers 45%
-1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -10%
1.20/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.17
-3% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +18%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
258 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 72%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
21.3 Crosses 21.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carlisle United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Chesterfield
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
17.02.2018 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-0 HT 1-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN2
28.10.2017 Chesterfield Chesterfield 2-2 HT 1-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
11.08.2015 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-1 HT 0-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İNLK
04.02.2012 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-1 HT 0-1 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN1
17.09.2011 Chesterfield Chesterfield 4-1 HT 2-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN1
10.11.2009 Chesterfield Chesterfield 1-3 HT 1-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İNTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carlisle United
0-2
AWAY Chesterfield
0.96 xG 0.60
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 1
282 Passes 275
71% Pass Accuracy 72%
13 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Carlisle United vs Chesterfield
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesterfield beat Carlisle United 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 26% / 37% — and on the day Chesterfield made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Carlisle United had 52% of the ball to Chesterfield's 48%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.96 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carlisle United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Carlisle United and 1.50 for Chesterfield.

What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Chesterfield?

Carlisle United 0-2 Chesterfield in the England - 2nd Division on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Chesterfield?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carlisle United win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 37%, draw 26%, Chesterfield 37%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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