Rayo Vallecano 3-3 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 14 Dec 2024

Rayo Vallecano
3-3 HT 2-2
Real Madrid
📅14/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
5.34
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
47%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.44
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.27
6+ Goals
10%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 27% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
9.76
1/2
9%
23.4
1/X
9%
18.15
X/1
9%
12.05
X/2
22%
3.68
X/X
11%
5.71
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
16%
1.92
2/X
7%
17.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
16%
+10.0pp
27%
Draw
22%
+4.8pp
47%
Away Win
62%
-14.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.0pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rayo Vallecano v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 66%
+7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +11%
1.11/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/0.99
+13% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +14%
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
262 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 477 · 86%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.7
20.8 Crosses 16.7
3.1 Yellow Cards 1.8

Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rayo Vallecano
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Real Madrid
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.98 xG 1.86
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
308 Passes 506
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 34
19 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.02.2024 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 1-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
05.11.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 0-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
24.05.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-1 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
07.11.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 3-2 HT 2-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
26.02.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-1 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
06.11.2021 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-1 HT 2-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1

Rayo Vallecano 3-3 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rayo Vallecano
3-3
AWAY Real Madrid
1.62 xG 0.69
34% Ball Possession 66%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
237 Passes 551
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 2-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Real Madrid at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 34% of the ball to Real Madrid's 66%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.62 to 0.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.33 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid?

Rayo Vallecano 3-3 Real Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 26%, draw 27%, Real Madrid 47%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Real Madrid), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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