Winterthur 3-4 Luzern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.29
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
48%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.18
Over 2.5
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.37
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
3.01
6+ Goals
10%
9.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
5.18
1/2 EV+ ✓
16%
23.0
1/X
8%
13.2
X/1
12%
7.71
X/2
15%
4.78
X/X
11%
5.32
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
17%
2.65
2/X
6%
12.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.0 — our 16% vs market 2.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
27%
-0.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
49%
Away Win
47%
+1.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.2pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Winterthur EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Luzern EU Bookmakers 51%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +13%
1.08/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/1.11
-13% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +66%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
337 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 78%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.9
16.1 Crosses 19.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Winterthur
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Luzern
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.72 xG 1.76
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
346 Passes 295
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
24.08.2024 Luzern Luzern 3-0 HT 1-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
11.02.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 2-1 HT 0-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
25.11.2023 Luzern Luzern 3-1 HT 1-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
22.07.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 0-0 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
27.04.2023 Luzern Luzern 3-1 HT 1-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
10.04.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 1-2 HT 0-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Winterthur
3-4
AWAY Luzern
1.48 xG 3.70
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 28
5 Shots on Target 12
7 Corners 8
326 Passes 332
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
33 Box Touches 44
20 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Winterthur vs Luzern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luzern edged past Winterthur 4-3 away from home. It was 3-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Luzern as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Winterthur had 50% of the ball to Luzern's 50%, shots finished 16-28, expected goals 1.48 to 3.70 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Luzern's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Luzern led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Winterthur and 2.00 for Luzern.

What was the final score of Winterthur vs Luzern?

Winterthur 3-4 Luzern in the Switzerland - Super League on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Winterthur vs Luzern?

Before kick-off our model rated an Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Winterthur 27%, draw 25%, Luzern 49%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Luzern), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Luzern) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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