Cagliari 0-1 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 14 Dec 2024

Cagliari
0-1 HT 0-0
Atalanta
📅14/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Cagliari vs Atalanta Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.65
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
52%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.03
Over 2.5
59%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.76
No
42%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.7
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.11
6+ Goals
14%
10.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.11 — our 26% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
8.15
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
22.55
1/X
7%
16.55
X/1
8%
10.65
X/2
17%
3.88
X/X
9%
5.73
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.04
2/X
10%
15.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.55 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
18%
+3.3pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.7pp
52%
Away Win
58%
-5.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
45%
-4.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
55%
+4.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
53%
+5.7pp
42%
BTTS No
47%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cagliari v Atalanta — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cagliari EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 62%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -5%
1.17/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.17/0.88
+6% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +6%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
265 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 80%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.2
20.8 Crosses 18.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1

Cagliari vs Atalanta Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cagliari
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Atalanta
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.62 xG 1.75
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
266 Passes 469
72% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 33
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.04.2024 Cagliari Cagliari 2-1 HT 1-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
24.09.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 2-0 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
06.02.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 1-2 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
06.11.2021 Cagliari Cagliari 1-2 HT 1-2 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
14.02.2021 Cagliari Cagliari 0-1 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
14.01.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 3-1 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTK

Cagliari 0-1 Atalanta — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cagliari
0-1
AWAY Atalanta
1.51 xG 1.46
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
309 Passes 436
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 27
21 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cagliari vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta squeezed past Cagliari 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atalanta as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cagliari had 44% of the ball to Atalanta's 56%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.51 to 1.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cagliari and 1.67 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Cagliari vs Atalanta?

Cagliari 0-1 Atalanta in the Italy - Serie A on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cagliari vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Cagliari 22%, draw 26%, Atalanta 52%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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