Udinese 1-3 Napoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 14 Dec 2024

Udinese
1-3 HT 1-0
Napoli
📅14/12/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Udinese vs Napoli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.48
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
47%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.62
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.19
6+ Goals
8%
21.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.62 — our 34% vs market 31.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
8.37
1/2
8%
28.0
1/X
10%
16.6
X/1
9%
9.8
X/2
13%
3.85
X/X
10%
4.39
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
26%
2.27
2/X
6%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
19%
+7.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
47%
Away Win
55%
-8.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.1pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Udinese v Napoli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Udinese EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Napoli EU Bookmakers 58%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
1.03/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/0.95
+4% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +5%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
307 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 407 · 82%
16.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
16.2 Crosses 16.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.7

Udinese vs Napoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Udinese
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Napoli
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.56 xG 1.68
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
265 Passes 532
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
06.05.2024 Udinese Udinese 1-1 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
27.09.2023 Napoli Napoli 4-1 HT 2-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
04.05.2023 Udinese Udinese 1-1 HT 1-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
12.11.2022 Napoli Napoli 3-2 HT 2-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
19.03.2022 Napoli Napoli 2-1 HT 0-1 Udinese Udinese İTA
20.09.2021 Udinese Udinese 0-4 HT 0-2 Napoli Napoli İTA

Udinese 1-3 Napoli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Udinese
1-3
AWAY Napoli
1.42 xG 2.19
30% Ball Possession 70%
7 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 9
169 Passes 512
69% Pass Accuracy 90%
12 Box Touches 32
11 Crosses 33
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Udinese vs Napoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napoli beat Udinese 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Napoli as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Udinese had 30% of the ball to Napoli's 70%, shots finished 7-17, expected goals 1.42 to 2.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Udinese and 2.50 for Napoli.

What was the final score of Udinese vs Napoli?

Udinese 1-3 Napoli in the Italy - Serie A on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Udinese vs Napoli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Udinese 27%, draw 26%, Napoli 47%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Napoli) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Napoli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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