St. Pauli 0-2 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 14 Dec 2024

St. Pauli
0-2 HT 0-1
Werder Bremen
📅14/12/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
38%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.78
Over 2.5
53%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.96
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.7
6+ Goals
12%
16.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.7 — our 25% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
4.11
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
29.5
1/X
8%
13.15
X/1
7%
5.87
X/2
13%
5.34
X/X
13%
4.35
2/1
8%
32.0
2/2
12%
3.61
2/X
6%
13.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.5 — our 12% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+1.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.8pp
38%
Away Win
37%
+0.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.1pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

St. Pauli v Werder Bremen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 40%
-8% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.79/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.59
-94% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -25%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
308 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 76%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
19.0 Crosses 19.3
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.56 xG 2.21
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
312 Passes 279
72% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 32
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.04.2022 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-1 HT 1-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL2
30.10.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-1 HT 0-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
22.07.2017 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-1 HT 1-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen HAZ
23.04.2011 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-3 HT 1-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
28.11.2010 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 3-0 HT 2-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
23.09.2009 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-1 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AFK

St. Pauli 0-2 Werder Bremen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
0-2
AWAY Werder Bremen
0.63 xG 1.02
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
490 Passes 373
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen saw off St. Pauli 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; Werder Bremen found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, St. Pauli had 57% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 43%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 0.63 to 1.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Werder Bremen led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for St. Pauli and 1.83 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?

St. Pauli 0-2 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Werder Bremen win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 36%, draw 26%, Werder Bremen 38%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Werder Bremen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Werder Bremen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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