Mainz 05 2-1 Bayern Münih — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.71
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
49%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.4
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
28%
2.81
6+ Goals
11%
7.97
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
8.47
1/2
7%
21.05
1/X
7%
16.55
X/1
7%
11.6
X/2
13%
3.93
X/X
10%
6.34
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
28%
1.93
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
15.95
Value flag · 2/X at 15.95 — our 9% vs market 3.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
18%
+7.2pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.4pp
49%
Away Win
60%
-11.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.7pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 64%
+8% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -19%
1.48/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.21/1.26
+38% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -38%
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
294 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 81%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 36.4
18.6 Crosses 18.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 4.33
1.20 xG 3.20
31% Ball Possession 69%
12 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
222 Passes 608
73% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 35
13 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.10.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-4 HT 0-4 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AFK
09.03.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 8-1 HT 3-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
21.10.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-3 HT 1-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
22.04.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-1 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
01.02.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-4 HT 0-3 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AFK
29.10.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 6-2 HT 3-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
2-1
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.06 xG 1.39
31% Ball Possession 69%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 2
203 Passes 545
70% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Bayern Münih
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 nicked a narrow win over Bayern Münih 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Bayern Münih at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 31% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 69%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 1.06 to 1.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Mainz 05 and 4.33 for Bayern Münih.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Bayern Münih?

Mainz 05 2-1 Bayern Münih in the Germany - Bundesliga on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Bayern Münih?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 26%, draw 26%, Bayern Münih 49%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayern Münih) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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