Mainz 05 0-4 Bayern Münih — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 30 Oct 2024

Mainz 05
0-4 HT 0-4
Bayern Münih
📅30/10/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 0-3 ✗
Germany - DFB Cup – 2024/2025

Mainz 05 vs Bayern Münih Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
7.95
Draw
20%
5.28
Away
61%
1.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.89
Over 2.5
57%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.67
2-3 Goals
40%
2.15
4-5 Goals
26%
2.5
6+ Goals
15%
5.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
16.8
1/2
6%
20.95
1/X
5%
24.0
X/1
6%
24.0
X/2
19%
3.58
X/X
9%
9.9
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
37%
1.39
2/X
6%
24.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
10%
+8.9pp
20%
Draw
16%
+4.8pp
61%
Away Win
75%
-13.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
31%
+11.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
69%
-11.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mainz 05 v Bayern Münih — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 80%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -13%
0.91/2.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.67/0.86
-100% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -22%
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
253 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 507 · 83%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 44.8
11.0 Crosses 19.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 0.8

Mainz 05 vs Bayern Münih Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.83
1.67 xG 2.90
33% Ball Possession 67%
15 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
222 Passes 549
72% Pass Accuracy 87%
23 Box Touches 34
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.03.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 8-1 HT 3-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
21.10.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-3 HT 1-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
22.04.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-1 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
01.02.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-4 HT 0-3 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AFK
29.10.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 6-2 HT 3-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
30.04.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-1 HT 2-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1

Mainz 05 0-4 Bayern Münih — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
0-4
AWAY Bayern Münih
0.56 xG 3.21
20% Ball Possession 80%
6 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 10
1 Corners 2
170 Passes 842
76% Pass Accuracy 93%
6 Box Touches 23
7 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Bayern Münih
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih cruised past Mainz 05 4-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 20% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 80%, shots finished 6-15, expected goals 0.56 to 3.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Mainz 05 and 3.83 for Bayern Münih.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Bayern Münih?

Mainz 05 0-4 Bayern Münih in the Germany - DFB Cup on 30/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Bayern Münih?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 18%, draw 20%, Bayern Münih 61%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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