Paderborn 0-1 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 30 Oct 2024

📅30/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.38
Over 2.5
47%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.46
No
54%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
5.24
2-3 Goals
41%
1.97
4-5 Goals
22%
2.71
6+ Goals
10%
6.83
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.24 — our 27% vs market 14.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.68
1/2
11%
23.6
1/X
6%
12.3
X/1
13%
6.25
X/2
15%
5.67
X/X
10%
5.64
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
15%
3.22
2/X
7%
12.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
+0.1pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.4pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+2.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
38%
+15.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
62%
-15.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
64%
-18.8pp
54%
BTTS No
36%
+18.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 43%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
0.67/1.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.91/1.19
-1% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +50%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
326 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 76%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
13.9 Crosses 21.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Werder Bremen
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.37 xG 1.69
45% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 8
282 Passes 377
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2022 Paderborn Paderborn 2-2 HT 2-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AFK
22.01.2022 Paderborn Paderborn 3-4 HT 2-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL2
15.08.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-4 HT 0-3 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
13.06.2020 Paderborn Paderborn 1-5 HT 0-3 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
08.12.2019 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-1 HT 0-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL1
26.04.2015 Paderborn Paderborn 2-2 HT 2-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
0-1
AWAY Werder Bremen
2.40 xG 1.99
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
387 Passes 423
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen edged past Paderborn 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 23% / 41% — and on the day Werder Bremen made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Paderborn had 48% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 52%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 2.40 to 1.99 — the balance of chances actually favoured Paderborn.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Paderborn and 2.33 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Werder Bremen?

Paderborn 0-1 Werder Bremen in the Germany - DFB Cup on 30/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Werder Bremen win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 36%, draw 23%, Werder Bremen 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Werder Bremen), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Werder Bremen) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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