Hoffenheim 2-1 Nürnberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 30 Oct 2024

Hoffenheim
2-1 HT 1-0
Nürnberg
📅30/10/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Germany - DFB Cup – 2024/2025

Hoffenheim vs Nürnberg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.47
Draw
25%
4.34
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.61
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.99
2-3 Goals
38%
2.07
4-5 Goals
28%
2.57
6+ Goals
13%
5.76
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.75
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.6
X/1
16%
3.94
X/2
8%
13.1
X/X
11%
7.39
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
19.25
2/2
8%
8.79
2/X
7%
16.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.25 — our 12% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
64%
-12.6pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.3pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+7.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+7.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-7.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.8pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hoffenheim v Nürnberg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 20%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
2.57/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.34/2.69
+69% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -98% / +28%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
434 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 75%
36.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.1
19.9 Crosses 12.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

Hoffenheim vs Nürnberg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Nürnberg
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
2.75 xG 0.94
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
458 Passes 230
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
38 Box Touches 10
32 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
10.03.2019 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2-1 HT 1-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL1
20.10.2018 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-3 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
25.01.2014 Nürnberg Nürnberg 4-0 HT 2-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
10.08.2013 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2-2 HT 1-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL1
27.04.2013 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2-1 HT 2-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL1
28.11.2012 Nürnberg Nürnberg 4-2 HT 2-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1

Hoffenheim 2-1 Nürnberg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
2-1
AWAY Nürnberg
2.25 xG 1.39
50% Ball Possession 50%
23 Total Shots 15
10 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 6
359 Passes 368
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
35 Box Touches 22
27 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Nürnberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim nicked a narrow win over Nürnberg 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hoffenheim as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 50% of the ball to Nürnberg's 50%, shots finished 23-15, expected goals 2.25 to 1.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hoffenheim had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Hoffenheim and 2.17 for Nürnberg.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Nürnberg?

Hoffenheim 2-1 Nürnberg in the Germany - DFB Cup on 30/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Nürnberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 51%, draw 25%, Nürnberg 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hoffenheim), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hoffenheim) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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