Hertha Berlin 2-1 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 30 Oct 2024

📅30/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
34%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.1
Over 2.5
59%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.6
No
42%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.14
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.04
6+ Goals
15%
9.6
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.04 — our 28% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.61
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.05
X/1
12%
4.62
X/2
10%
7.56
X/X
13%
5.25
2/1
8%
22.7
2/2
16%
5.17
2/X
7%
13.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.0pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.5pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+7.5pp
41%
Under 2.5
44%
-2.6pp
59%
Over 2.5
56%
+2.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.4pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hertha Berlin EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 30%
-49% / -49% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.97/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.53
-49% / -72% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +91% / -45%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
348 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 74%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
20.8 Crosses 30.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hertha Berlin
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Heidenheim
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
511 Passes 268
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
10.02.2016 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-3 HT 1-2 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hertha Berlin
2-1
AWAY Heidenheim
0.90 xG 0.86
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
328 Passes 395
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
35 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 23
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hertha Berlin vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hertha Berlin nicked a narrow win over Heidenheim 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hertha Berlin as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Hertha Berlin had 45% of the ball to Heidenheim's 55%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.90 to 0.86.

What was the final score of Hertha Berlin vs Heidenheim?

Hertha Berlin 2-1 Heidenheim in the Germany - DFB Cup on 30/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hertha Berlin vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hertha Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Hertha Berlin 41%, draw 24%, Heidenheim 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hertha Berlin), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hertha Berlin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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