Freiburg 2-1 Hamburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 30 Oct 2024

📅30/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.33
Over 2.5
58%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.92
2-3 Goals
37%
1.94
4-5 Goals
27%
2.78
6+ Goals
13%
7.42
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.97
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.3
X/1
22%
4.01
X/2
7%
10.65
X/X
11%
6.43
2/1
7%
20.05
2/2
14%
7.43
2/X
4%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
59%
-8.4pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.4pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+7.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
39%
+3.5pp
58%
Over 2.5
61%
-3.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.5pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamburg EU Bookmakers 23%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.83/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/2.31
-39% / -50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +95%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
418 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 75%
33.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
27.8 Crosses 21.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Hamburg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.24 xG 1.18
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
263 Passes 313
68% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.04.2022 Hamburg Hamburg 1-3 HT 0-3 Freiburg Freiburg AFK
21.04.2018 Hamburg Hamburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
01.12.2017 Freiburg Freiburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL1
18.02.2017 Hamburg Hamburg 2-2 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
20.09.2016 Freiburg Freiburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL1
08.05.2015 Hamburg Hamburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
2-1
AWAY Hamburg
1.57 xG 0.89
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
389 Passes 438
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
27 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs Hamburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg squeezed past Hamburg 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Freiburg as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Freiburg had 48% of the ball to Hamburg's 52%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.57 to 0.89.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Freiburg and 0.83 for Hamburg.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs Hamburg?

Freiburg 2-1 Hamburg in the Germany - DFB Cup on 30/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs Hamburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 50%, draw 23%, Hamburg 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Freiburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Freiburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AFK More Germany - DFB Cup
30 Oct 2024
20:00 Paderborn vs Werder Bremen Analysis →
20:00 Hertha Berlin vs Heidenheim Analysis →
20:00 Eintracht Frankfurt vs Mönchengladbach Analysis →
22:45 Dynamo Dresden vs Darmstadt 98 Analysis →
22:45 Hoffenheim vs Nürnberg Analysis →
22:45 Mainz 05 vs Bayern Münih Analysis →