Magdeburg 1-1 Paderborn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
40%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.61
No
44%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.64
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
3.14
6+ Goals
12%
10.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.53
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1
14%
5.59
X/2
10%
5.94
X/X
9%
4.88
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
22%
3.85
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
12.75
Value flag · 2/X at 12.75 — our 11% vs market 5.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
38%
-4.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
40%
Away Win
35%
+5.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.2pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Magdeburg EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Paderborn EU Bookmakers 38%
-20% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +18%
1.31/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.48
-34% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
336 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 72%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
15.0 Crosses 16.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Magdeburg
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Paderborn
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.00 xG 1.78
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
328 Passes 297
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 28
10 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 Paderborn Paderborn 0-0 HT 0-0 Magdeburg Magdeburg AL2
22.09.2023 Magdeburg Magdeburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
11.03.2023 Magdeburg Magdeburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
03.09.2022 Paderborn Paderborn 1-0 HT 0-0 Magdeburg Magdeburg AL2
24.02.2019 Magdeburg Magdeburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
23.09.2018 Paderborn Paderborn 4-4 HT 2-1 Magdeburg Magdeburg AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Magdeburg
1-1
AWAY Paderborn
1.31 xG 1.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
357 Passes 264
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 27
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Magdeburg vs Paderborn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Magdeburg and Paderborn shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 26% / 40% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Magdeburg had 54% of the ball to Paderborn's 46%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.31 to 1.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paderborn led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Magdeburg and 1.17 for Paderborn.

What was the final score of Magdeburg vs Paderborn?

Magdeburg 1-1 Paderborn in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Magdeburg vs Paderborn?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Magdeburg 34%, draw 26%, Paderborn 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Paderborn), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paderborn) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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