Independiente Del Valle 1-0 LDU Quito — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
49%
+0.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.9pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY LDU Quito EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
1.43/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.09
+39% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
313 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 77%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
18.9 Crosses 15.3
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
0W-3D-3L
AWAY LDU Quito
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.85 xG 0.79
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
376 Passes 211
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2024 LDU Quito LDU Quito 3-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
09.11.2024 LDU Quito LDU Quito 2-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
19.05.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-1 HT 1-1 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
18.12.2023 LDU Quito LDU Quito 1-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
11.12.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 0-0 HT 0-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
05.11.2023 LDU Quito LDU Quito 2-0 HT 2-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
1-0
AWAY LDU Quito
1.66 xG 0.18
72% Ball Possession 28%
25 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 0
410 Passes 111
82% Pass Accuracy 56%
40 Box Touches 13
31 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs LDU Quito
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle edged past LDU Quito 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 72% of the ball to LDU Quito's 28%, shots finished 25-4, expected goals 1.66 to 0.18 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Independiente Del Valle's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, LDU Quito led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 1.50 for LDU Quito.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs LDU Quito?

Independiente Del Valle 1-0 LDU Quito in the Ecuador - Premier on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs LDU Quito?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 49%, draw 25%, LDU Quito 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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