İstanbulspor 3-2 Erzurumspor FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.71
Over 2.5
39%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.85
No
58%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.87
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
4.16
6+ Goals
9%
19.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 34% vs market 29.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.06
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.0
X/1
23%
4.6
X/2
13%
6.58
X/X
14%
4.36
2/1
9%
28.0
2/2
9%
5.06
2/X
7%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
44%
+0.8pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-1.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
55%
+6.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
45%
-6.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
50%
-7.7pp
58%
BTTS No
50%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İstanbulspor EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 32%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -10%
1.78/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.20
+9% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
18.5 Crosses 17.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İstanbulspor
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Erzurumspor FK
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.27 xG 1.68
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
312 Passes 294
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.05.2022 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor 0-1 HT 0-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
25.05.2022 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 2-4 HT 0-1 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor T1L
24.04.2022 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor 1-2 HT 0-1 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
04.12.2021 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 3-1 HT 2-1 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor T1L
19.01.2020 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor 1-1 HT 0-1 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
18.08.2019 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 2-2 HT 0-2 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İstanbulspor
3-2
AWAY Erzurumspor FK
1.31 xG 0.70
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
324 Passes 218
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
17 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH İstanbulspor vs Erzurumspor FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İstanbulspor edged past Erzurumspor FK 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had İstanbulspor as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, İstanbulspor had 58% of the ball to Erzurumspor FK's 42%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.31 to 0.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzurumspor FK led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for İstanbulspor and 1.83 for Erzurumspor FK.

What was the final score of İstanbulspor vs Erzurumspor FK?

İstanbulspor 3-2 Erzurumspor FK in the Turkey - 1st Division on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İstanbulspor vs Erzurumspor FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a İstanbulspor win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split İstanbulspor 45%, draw 28%, Erzurumspor FK 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İstanbulspor) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (İstanbulspor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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