Auxerre vs Lille Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Auxerre v Lille — Team-Based Signals
Auxerre vs Lille Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-1
Lille
FR1
4-1
HT 3-0
Auxerre
FR1
3-1
HT 3-0
Auxerre
FRK
0-0
HT 0-0
Auxerre
FRLK
Auxerre 3-4 Lille — Actual Match Statistics
Lille nicked a narrow win over Auxerre 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Lille as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Auxerre had 45% of the ball to Lille's 55%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 2.97 to 0.48 — the balance of chances actually favoured Auxerre.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Auxerre and 1.83 for Lille.
What was the final score of Auxerre vs Lille?
Auxerre 3-4 Lille in the France - Ligue 1 on 14/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Auxerre vs Lille?
Before kick-off our model rated an Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 28%, draw 28%, Lille 44%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lille) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.