Lille vs Auxerre Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lille v Auxerre — Team-Based Signals
Lille vs Auxerre Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-1
Lille
FR1
4-1
HT 3-0
Auxerre
FR1
3-1
HT 3-0
Auxerre
FRK
0-0
HT 0-0
Auxerre
FRLK
2-2
HT 1-0
Auxerre
FR1
Lille 3-1 Auxerre — Actual Match Statistics
Lille got the better of Auxerre 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lille as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Lille had 57% of the ball to Auxerre's 43%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 2.04 to 0.29.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lille and 0.83 for Auxerre.
What was the final score of Lille vs Auxerre?
Lille 3-1 Auxerre in the France - Ligue 1 on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lille vs Auxerre?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lille 53%, draw 25%, Auxerre 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lille), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.