Saint-Etienne vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Saint-Etienne v Lyon — Team-Based Signals
Saint-Etienne vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Saint-Etienne
FR1
1-1
HT 0-1
Lyon
FR1
0-5
HT 0-2
Lyon
FR1
2-1
HT 0-1
Saint-Etienne
FR1
2-0
HT 1-0
Saint-Etienne
FR1
Saint-Etienne 2-1 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics
Saint-Etienne squeezed past Lyon 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
Our pre-match lean was Lyon at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.
On the day, Saint-Etienne had 41% of the ball to Lyon's 59%, shots finished 18-14, expected goals 1.60 to 0.76.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Saint-Etienne and 2.00 for Lyon.
What was the final score of Saint-Etienne vs Lyon?
Saint-Etienne 2-1 Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Saint-Etienne vs Lyon?
Before kick-off our model rated an Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Saint-Etienne 25%, draw 24%, Lyon 52%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lyon) went the other way.