Brest 1-3 Lens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 20 Apr 2025

Brest
1-3 HT 1-2
Lens
📅20/04/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Brest vs Lens Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.33
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.9
Over 2.5 OUR CALL
56%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.31
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.45
6+ Goals
12%
13.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.52
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
8%
12.45
X/1
10%
5.6
X/2
10%
6.28
X/X
10%
4.57
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
27.5
2/2
14%
4.22
2/X
7%
12.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.5 — our 11% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 56% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
39%
+5.1pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.4pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-1.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
49%
-4.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
51%
+4.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.9pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brest v Lens — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brest EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Lens EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.47/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.57
+12% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
349 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 82%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
23.1 Crosses 17.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9

Brest vs Lens Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brest
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Lens
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.50 xG 1.84
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
330 Passes 403
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.08.2024 Lens Lens 2-0 HT 2-0 Brest Brest FR1
09.03.2024 Lens Lens 1-0 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
13.08.2023 Brest Brest 3-2 HT 1-2 Lens Lens FR1
05.02.2023 Brest Brest 1-1 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR1
22.01.2023 Brest Brest 1-3 HT 1-3 Lens Lens FRK
07.08.2022 Lens Lens 3-2 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1

Brest 1-3 Lens — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brest
1-3
AWAY Lens
1.04 xG 2.52
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 6
319 Passes 428
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 16
POST-MATCH Brest vs Lens
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lens got the better of Brest 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Brest at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Brest had 44% of the ball to Lens's 56%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.04 to 2.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lens led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Brest and 2.00 for Lens.

What was the final score of Brest vs Lens?

Brest 1-3 Lens in the France - Ligue 1 on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brest vs Lens?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brest win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Brest 44%, draw 25%, Lens 31%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Brest) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brest) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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