Lyon 1-0 Saint-Etienne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 10 Nov 2024

Lyon
1-0 HT 1-0
Saint-Etienne
📅10/11/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Lyon vs Saint-Etienne Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.33
Draw
20%
4.81
Away
19%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
2.63
Over 2.5 OUR CALL
65%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.7
No
41%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
6.17
2-3 Goals
32%
2.09
4-5 Goals
32%
2.55
6+ Goals
19%
5.56
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.53
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
20.45
X/1
21%
3.68
X/2
7%
17.55
X/X
6%
8.52
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
19.8
2/2
8%
12.15
2/X
8%
20.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.8 — our 13% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 65% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
70%
-9.2pp
20%
Draw
17%
+2.3pp
19%
Away Win
12%
+6.9pp
35%
Under 2.5
34%
+0.2pp
65%
Over 2.5
66%
-0.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
55%
+4.0pp
41%
BTTS No
45%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lyon v Saint-Etienne — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Saint-Etienne EU Bookmakers 16%
-8% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -9%
2.23/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/2.31
-7% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -23%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
508 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
19.3 Crosses 14.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Lyon vs Saint-Etienne Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Saint-Etienne
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.95 xG 1.02
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
418 Passes 251
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.01.2022 Lyon Lyon 1-0 HT 1-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
03.10.2021 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-1 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
24.01.2021 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 0-5 HT 0-2 Lyon Lyon FR1
08.11.2020 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 0-1 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
01.03.2020 Lyon Lyon 2-0 HT 1-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
06.10.2019 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-0 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1

Lyon 1-0 Saint-Etienne — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
1-0
AWAY Saint-Etienne
1.17 xG 0.63
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
468 Passes 260
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
40 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lyon vs Saint-Etienne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon nicked a narrow win over Saint-Etienne 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lyon as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lyon had 62% of the ball to Saint-Etienne's 38%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.17 to 0.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Lyon and 0.50 for Saint-Etienne.

What was the final score of Lyon vs Saint-Etienne?

Lyon 1-0 Saint-Etienne in the France - Ligue 1 on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs Saint-Etienne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Lyon 61%, draw 20%, Saint-Etienne 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lyon) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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