Montpellier 3-1 Brest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
41%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.78
Over 2.5
53%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes OUR CALL
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.05
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
26%
3.83
6+ Goals
12%
16.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.08
1/2
9%
29.5
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
15%
5.84
X/2
17%
5.33
X/X
9%
4.24
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
16%
3.58
2/X
8%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.2pp
25%
Draw
29%
-4.3pp
41%
Away Win
37%
+4.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.7pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Brest EU Bookmakers 40%
-6% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +18%
1.55/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.09
+0% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +28%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
330 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 80%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
23.8 Crosses 20.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Brest
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.73 xG 1.29
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
324 Passes 335
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.01.2024 Brest Brest 2-0 HT 0-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
26.11.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 1-3 HT 0-1 Brest Brest FR1
12.02.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 3-0 HT 2-0 Brest Brest FR1
28.08.2022 Brest Brest 0-7 HT 0-5 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
03.04.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 1-2 HT 0-0 Brest Brest FR1
11.12.2021 Brest Brest 0-4 HT 0-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montpellier
3-1
AWAY Brest
2.49 xG 0.93
33% Ball Possession 67%
14 Total Shots 19
8 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
169 Passes 421
69% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 22
8 Crosses 26
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs Brest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montpellier got the better of Brest 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Brest at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Montpellier had 33% of the ball to Brest's 67%, shots finished 14-19, expected goals 2.49 to 0.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Montpellier and 1.17 for Brest.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs Brest?

Montpellier 3-1 Brest in the France - Ligue 1 on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs Brest?

Before kick-off our model rated an Brest win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 34%, draw 25%, Brest 41%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Brest) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brest) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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