Nice vs Lille Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nice v Lille — Team-Based Signals
Nice vs Lille Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Lille
FR1
1-0
HT 1-0
Lille
FR1
1-2
HT 1-2
Nice
FR1
1-3
HT 1-0
Lille
FR1
0-4
HT 0-3
Nice
FR1
Nice 2-2 Lille — Actual Match Statistics
Nice and Lille couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Nice at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Nice had 43% of the ball to Lille's 57%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 2.11 to 1.68.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nice had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Nice and 1.17 for Lille.
What was the final score of Nice vs Lille?
Nice 2-2 Lille in the France - Ligue 1 on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nice vs Lille?
Before kick-off our model rated a Nice win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Nice 41%, draw 25%, Lille 34%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.