Lyon 1-0 Le Havre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 14 Dec 2025

📅14/12/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.64
Draw
19%
3.72
Away
18%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.45
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.34
6+ Goals
11%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 32% vs market 23.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.09
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
4%
15.1
X/1
20%
4.15
X/2
8%
10.4
X/X
11%
5.44
2/1
12%
23.1
2/2
7%
8.42
2/X
4%
16.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Lyon win — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
57%
+5.5pp
19%
Draw
24%
-4.5pp
18%
Away Win
19%
-1.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.6pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Le Havre EU Bookmakers 22%
-4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +13%
1.93/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.26
+7% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +109%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
442 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 80%
31.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
18.0 Crosses 16.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Le Havre
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.08 xG 1.22
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
491 Passes 288
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
33 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2025 Lyon Lyon 4-2 HT 1-2 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
20.10.2024 Le Havre Le Havre 0-4 Lyon Lyon FR1
14.01.2024 Le Havre Le Havre 3-1 HT 1-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
17.09.2023 Lyon Lyon 0-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
15.02.2009 Lyon Lyon 3-1 HT 2-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
20.09.2008 Le Havre Le Havre 0-1 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
1-0
AWAY Le Havre
2.56 xG 1.40
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
310 Passes 213
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
31 Box Touches 17
30 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lyon vs Le Havre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon edged past Le Havre 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lyon as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Lyon had 57% of the ball to Le Havre's 43%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 2.56 to 1.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Lyon and 1.00 for Le Havre.

What was the final score of Lyon vs Le Havre?

Lyon 1-0 Le Havre in the France - Ligue 1 on 14/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs Le Havre?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Lyon 62%, draw 19%, Le Havre 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lyon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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